Tag: coin flip

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions – Wrap Up

Well folks, we’ve come to the end of another NHL Stanley Cup Playoff run and while we are all sad that the Boston Bruins did not win, we are all happy that the Montreal Canadiens didn’t win either.

The only question left is how did I do with my predictions, and did I do better than random chance? No. No I did not.

I tried to predict the outcome of every playoff series. I predicted the Lightning would win the Final and I was right. That gives me a painfully mediocre, but still on the winning side, record of eight correct and seven incorrect predictions. 8-7. My winning percentage is 53.3%. I’ll take it.

I also tested random selection by flipping a coin for some of the series. I excluded the three matchups that only had teams in the Bruins’ division. Two from the first round and one from the second. The coin flip also picked Tampa Bay in the Final so it ended the tournament with a record of eight correct and four incorrect. 8-4. The coin’s winning percentage was a staggering 66.7% It was right on two out of every three. So much for randomness, huh? What a jerk!

So now what? Barring any more Covid-19 shenanigans we should have an expansion draft and an entry draft and a free agency period this summer, followed by training camps in the fall and a new season in October. You know, the way things used to go prior to Covid-19’s colossal screwing. My hope for the summer is that the Bruins draft the best rookies and snag the best free agents and sometime next June they win another Stanley Cup. I don’t think that’s asking for too much, do you?

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions – The Stanley Cup Final

We are in seriously dangerous territory. Montreal is in the finals. 28 NHL teams have failed in the world’s quest to keep Montreal from winning another Cup. There is only one team left who can stop this madness and it just happens to be the defending Stanley Cup Champs.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Before we talk about defeating the evil, let’s look at how my predictions have done thus far. Also, I flipped a coin for all but the first two round’s Northeast Division series so let’s see how the coin is doing (hint, the coin is doing better than I am).

After the first round my winning percentage was exactly .500. Six correct pics and six incorrect picks. 6-6. Pretty much the text book definition of mediocrity. The coin, with three fewer picks made, has a winning record at 5-4.

How did we do in the third round?

Lightning vs Islanders. It came down to a game seven but Tampa Bay was able to make both me and the coin look smart. We both picked Tampa so we were both right. I’m up to 7-6 and the coin is 6-4.

Golden Knights vs Canadiens. The horror. The horror. The horror. I picked Vegas because I hate the Canadiens with a passion that cannot be put into words. The coin sided with evil and picked Montreal. The coin was right (7-4) and I was heartbreakingly wrong (7-7).

And finally (pun definitely intended)……..

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens: So now we’ve arrived at the finals. There is so much more at stake than just the Cup, or my picks, or experiments in random selection, or anything like that. No, the fate of the universe is at stake. This isn’t hockey anymore, this is good vs evil with the defending champions the Tampa Bay Lightning on the side of good, and the vile, hated Montreal Canadiens on the side of evil. This is literally Luke “Lightning” Skywalker vs Darth “Les Habitants” Vader. Clearly I am picking Tampa Bay because I stand against evil whenever I can. The coin, who has picked Montreal twice now, picks (heads for the higher seed, which according to the NHL iOS app is Tampa Bay) Tampa Bay! The coin finally chooses to side against the evil ones! Thanks, coin!

Game one is Monday night. If Tampa Bay wins I will finish the playoffs with an 8-7 record and I’ll get to pat myself on the back for finishing with a winning record. If I lose I’ll finish 7-8 but it won’t matter because the universe will have collapsed into evil and madness so no one will notice my awful prediction skills. The coin will end up with a winning record either way, because it’s an asshole.

GO LIGHTNING!

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions – Round Three

I am not good at the second round. Every year it’s the same thing. First round, good. Second round, awful.

After one round I was 5-3 because the Maple Leafs suck. My coin flip was 2-4, again because the Leafs suck.

How’s it look after the second round?

The Bruins and the Islanders. Shut up. I’m not crying, you’re crying. Stop being such a butt munch, you jerk. I am now 5-4.

Hurricanes and Lightning. The coin and I both picked the lightning. Good work, me. I am 6-4 and the coin is 3-4. That’s it for good news for me.

Avalanche and Golden Knights. Welp… my pick to win it all is out of it. I picked the Avs and the coin picked Vegas. I am 6-5 and the coin is 4-4.

Canadiens vs Jets. Oh for fucks sake. I picked the Jets and the coin picked Montreal. Montreal won because they suck and also because the Leafs suck. I am 6-6 and the coin is 5-4.

So I guess that leaves us with the third round. They don’t seem to be calling it the Conference Finals this year. Instead it is the Stanley Cup Semifinals. Whatever, the Bruins aren’t in it so I hate it.

No. 3 Tampa Bay Lightning vs No. 4 New York Islanders: I hate them both. I hate Tampa because they beat us… last year was it? I don’t care, I hate them. I hate the Islanders more though because they beat us last week and they are from New York, even though they aren’t the real hockey team from New York (The Rangers didn’t make it this year because they suck). So I guess I am picking Tampa because I hate them slightly less. The coin flip (heads for the higher seed, tails for the lower) also picked Tampa.

No. 2 Vegas Golden Knights vs No. 4 Montreal Canadiens: Again, I hate them both. I didn’t hate Vegas a few days ago, but then they beat the team I was expecting to win it all so I hate them now. Montreal though… Can you feel the hate flowing through me? I hate the Montreal Canadiens the way a Sith Lord hates the Jedi. I hate them the way stormtroopers hate shooting straight. I hate them the way Tribbles hate Klingons. I hate them the way Science Fiction nerds hate it when blog writers mix Star Wars and Star Trek metaphors. Again, I am picking the lesser of the two hates and predicting a win for Vegas. The coin flip, for the second round in a row, picks Montreal. I hate that effin’ coin.

What does all of this mean?

It means the Bruins are out of it and it makes me sad. I could really used a Cup win this year. Thanks a bunch, guys.

NHL STanley Cup Playoffs Predictions – Round Two

Dude, you literally just said you weren’t going to do a predictions post until the Canadian Division’s first round was over, Yeah, well I say a lot of things that don’t come true, don’t I.

I will add an addendum to this after the Maple Leafs beat the Canadiens, because we all know that the Maple Leafs are going to beat the Canadiens. I will review all of my picks, and my coin flip picks, as they stand now and when the Canadiens are eliminated (likely sometime tonight) I’ll finalize everything. The second round is going to start tonight though so I should do something before then and this is it.

Let’s review 7/8ths of the first round and see how I did. Also, remember that in all but the East Division I made my pick and flipped a coin, so let’s also see how the coin is doing.

First, the East Division.

The Penguins and the Islanders. I picked the Penguins because I hate New York and the Penguins lost because I hate the Penguins and apparently they hate me right back. The Islanders won and I am officially 0-1.

The Capitals and the Bruins. I picked the Bruins but I thought it would be a tough series. It started out pretty tough with overtime in the first three games, but now that it’s over we have to ask ourselves if the Capitals ever really had a chance. I picked the Mighty Mighty Bruins and the Mighty Mighty Bruins won! WOOHOO! I am now 1-1.

Next up is the North Division.

The Maple Leafs vs the Canadiens. Winner still TBD, and by TBD I mean the Leafs are likely going to murderize the Habs in game six tonight. Until they make it official, I am still 1-1 and the coin flip is nil-nil.

The Oilers and the Jets. You know, dumbass, you literally said you wanted to pick the upset on this series but nooooo, you went and picked the higher seed. The stupid coin flip picked the same and we both look stupid, We picked the Oilers and the Jets won in a four game sweep. Smooth move, ex-lax. I am now 1-2 and the coin flip is 0-1.

On to the West division. Have you noticed that I forgot to do the Central? I sure did. Looking at my previous post I went and scrolled right over them to get to Canada. I’ll double back in a minute.

The Avalanche vs The Blues. I picked the Avs. The coin picked the Blues. One of us was right and one of us was wrong. The Avalanche won in a four game sweep. I picked the Avalanche. The coin picked the Blues. I was right. It was wrong. Suck it, Blues and suck it, coin. I am now 2-2 and the coin is a pathetic 0-2.

The Golden Knights vs The Wild. This series has the honor of being the first hockey I watched this season that didn’t have the Bruins on the ice, and that was last night. I picked Vegas and Vegas won and I was right. The coin picked the Wild and the Wild lost and the coin was wrong. I am now 3-2 and the coin is a shameful 0-3.

Oh hey look, it’s the Central Division. Remember them?

The Hurricanes and the Predators. The coin and I both picked the Whale and we were both correct because the Whale won it in six games. I am now 4-2 and the coin is on the board at last at 1-3.

The Panthers and the Lightning. I went with the upset and picked the Lightning. The coin did as well, though I don’t think its choice was based on the same logic. I think its choice was based on randomness or some shit. The Lightning won, regardless of the reason. I am now 5-2 and the coin is 2-3.

So I had a pretty good first round. If the Leafs win I go 6-2. If they lose I’m still a decent 5-3. I can live with that. I usually have really bad luck in the second round though, so all the more reason for the Leafs to win. If the Leafs win the coin will be an even 3-3 which is exactly how this is supposed to go, right?

Now for the second round… well, 3/4 of the second round at least.

As always, we start with the East Division…

No. 3 Boston Bruins vs No. 4 New York Islanders: Can you guess who I’m picking? Go on, guess. Let me give you a hint. I hate everything about all New York sports teams. You still can’t guess? Okay, another hint. I live in Boston and once held partial season tickets to the Bruins and I am currently wearing a Boston Bruins t-shirt and if you cut me I would literally bleed black and gold. Still can’t guess? Are you serious? Okay, I’ll make my pick. The Bruins will win. Hopefully quickly and easily, but more likely it’ll be six or seven games. The Islanders scare me, and not just because they are from the effin’ New York.

In the Central, because I didn’t forget all about them this time…

No. 1 Carolina Hurricanes vs No. 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: I’m not sure who to pick here. Do I go with the higher seed or the team that was unstoppable last year? I don’t know. Okay, I am going to pick the Lightning even though the idea of the Bruins facing them in round three yet again is kinda horrifying. No, I’m sticking to my gut and picking the Lightning to win. How about the coin flip? Heads for higher seed, tales for lower. The coin picks the Lightning too.

Go West, young man…

No 1. Colorado Avalanche vs No 2. Vegas Golden Knights: I want to say that this is a tough choice, and I guess on some level it is… but I’m pretty sure Colorado is going to win the Cup this year, so I am picking the Avs to win. Does our friend the coin flip agree? No. It disagrees. The coin picks Vegas and watch that son of a bitch be right. Stupid coin.

And finally the North division which isn’t even set yet…

Somebody vs No. 3 Winnipeg Jets: How about I make two picks for this round. One if the Leafs win and won if the Canadiens win. That sounds good. Then I don’t have to worry about the backlash when I pick later. Okay. I don’t think there is any doubt that the Maple Leafs are the team to beat in Canada. If the Maple Leafs advance to the second round they will win. If Montreal advances, Winnipeg will spank their asses the way Toronto should have, and the Jets will win. For Mr Coin Flip, if the Leafs advance they are the higher seed so heads is the Leafs. In that case the coin picks the Leafs. If Montreal wins they are the lower seed so the Jets would be heads. Should I do a separate flip or use the first flip? Screw it, I’ll use a separate flip. It’s my friggin’ blog post, I can make any stupid rules I want. It’s tails, so if the Canadiens advance, the Canadiens will win.

So there you have it. I technically don’t need to add an addendum after the Maple Leafs dismember the Canadiens tonight (or in game seven, if needed, but most likely tonight), but I probably will anyway.

The second round starts tonight with the Islanders at the Bruins at 8:00pm. Go Bruins! Stanley Cup or bust!

NHL Stanley Cup Quarterfinals Predictions – Round One

Here’s the thing about the NHL this season. I didn’t watch a single game outside of the East Division. There are 12 teams in the playoffs this year that I know literally nothing about. Here’s how I am going to handle it, predictions wise. For the East it is business as usual. For the other three divisions, I am going to make a gut feeling pick based mostly on the standings, but I am also going to make a coin flip pick. After the first round is over, I’ll compare the two and see how it went.

First, though, the East Division…

No. 1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs No. 4 New York Islanders: The Islanders have two strikes against them and the Penguins only have one. The Islanders are from New York (BOO!) and I have no faith in them at all. Two strikes. The Penguins’ only strike is that they are the friggin’ Penguins and I really hate the friggin’ Penguins. Still, I gotta pick them for this round. Pittsburgh will win.

No. 2 Washington Capitals vs No. 3 Boston Bruins: So there I was, at the trade deadline thinking, Taylor Hall? Really? He’s not going to put us over the top. He’s no winner. Well… I might have to stand here corrected. I am standing here beside myself corrected. I hope. My heroic, triumphant Boston Bruins have had a few clunkers of late, but I see them steam rolling the Caps in the first round. Please please please please please don’t make me eat those word too. Boston will win.

Next, the Central Division…

No. 1 Carolina Hurricanes vs No. 4 Nashville Predators: Not much doubt about this one, even without knowing anything about the two teams. I say Carolina wins this one. The coin flip (heads for the higher seed) says Carolina wins too.

No. 2 Florida Panthers vs No. 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: I’m picking the upset here. Probably because I am still thinking of the Lightning in terms of last season. I say Tampa Bay wins. The coin flip also says Tampa Bay wins. Weird.

On to the North Division…

No. 1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs No. 4 Montreal Canadiens: I hate the Montreal Canadiens with every fiber of my being. I hate them I hate them I hate them. Also, Toronto doesn’t have to play Boston in the first round so they won’t automatically lose again. I say Toronto wins, and probably wins the next round too. The coin flip says Toronto wins too. Is the coin like, reading my mind? Spooky.

No. 2 Edmonton Oilers vs. No. 3 Winnipeg Jets: I could maybe try a spoiler here too but I won’t. I say Edmonton wins (and probably pretty easily too). The coin says Edmonton wins too. Okay, this is starting to creep me out now.

Finally, the West Division where I will once again just pick the higher seed.

No. 1 Colorado Avalanche vs. No. 4 St. Louis Blues: Hey St. Louis, I got your Stanley Cup right here! (imagine me making a very rude hand gesture) You buncha jerkies. I’m not picking the Blues because I’m still pissed off about the last time. Also because I have a sneaking suspicion that the Avs are going to have a parade this year. They might get to do some on ice celebrating, possibly in Toronto. Hashtag foreshadowing. I say Colorado wins. The coin says St. Louis wins because the coin is an asshole. At least we finally have one where we didn’t pick the same team. Hey coin, I got your randomness right here! (imagine me making a very rude hand gesture)

No. 2 Vegas Golden Knights vs. No. 3 Minnesota Wild: Did you know that Minneapolis, MN is the only city outside of Boston, MA where I’ve attended an NHL game? Think that will lead me to pick them to win this series? Think again. I say Vegas wins. The coin, however, says that Minnesota wins. We shall see, Mr. Coin… we shall see.

There you have it, my first round playoff predictions for this the second 2021 playoff season which is also the second Covid-19 playoff season.

Go Bruins.

Major League Baseball Post Season Wrap Up

The Dodgers are World Series champions.

I have mixed feelings. First, I was hoping they would end up being the new breed of eternal losers. Now that the Red Sox (and the Cubs, I guess) have ended their futility streaks, it was time to replace them with a new team that consistently comes close but never wins… well. So much for that.

On the other hand, Mookie Betts. I want Mookie to win it over and over again. I want the Red Sox to constantly be reminded of how they screwed up by letting one of the best players in the game go. I don’t want the Dodgers to be a dynasty, but if that’s the price I have to pay to see Mookie be a dynasty then so be it.

Anyway, there is the coin flip predictions to wrap up. The coins picked seven out of 14 series leading up to the World Series. Exactly 50% correct. With an odd number of picks to make it was never going to finish off at 50%. It was either going to be one above or one below.

How’d it turn out?

One below. A final record of 7/8. The coin picked the (Devil) Rays and they lost. That leaves the final success rate at 47%. Good job, totally random coin flips. You did exactly what you were supposed to.

Major League Baseball World Series Prediction

It’s coin flip time again. The League Championships are over and the pennants have been won and there were lots of sick comebacks, both successful and otherwise.

So how did I do? First, let’s recap. The coin flip predictions in the first round were even at 4-4. The second round was a slaughter at 1-3. That’s 5-7 on the playoffs so far. Now let’s see the third round results, shall we?

Astros vs Rays: The coin picked the Rays, which was nice because the Astros are cheating pricks (so are my Red Sox, but let’s not talk about that today). Who won? The Rays won! The coin was right!

Braves vs Dodgers: The coin picked The Dodgers. The Dodgers should win it all, right? They are awesome. Still… they’ve blown it in the playoffs in each of the last 4000 years, so how’d they do this round? They didn’t blow it! They won! The coin was right again!

I was 2-0 in the Championship round, which puts the coins at… 7-7! Exactly 50% correct! Which is what a coin should do! How cool is that? Now there is an odd number of series in the post season, so it’s impossible to finish at 50/50, but whatever happens in the World Series, I will be as close to 50/50 has mathematically possible.

Let’s let the coin pick one more time. Heads for American League champ, tails for National League champ…..

Rays vs Dodgers: It’s Heads, babie! The Rays, whom I loathe, unfortunately, will bring the World Series to the American League East yet again, and the Dodgers will blow it in the big show once more!

There you have it, boys and girls. The Tampa Bay (devil) Rays will win the World Series!

Coins

These are the coins I’m using for my baseball playoff predictions. A Rays win tonight means one of my two current picks was right. Well… the coin’s pick was right. The Dodgers are down 2-1. They’ve got some work to do for the second pick.

Major League Baseball League Championship Series Predictions

The coin flip picks experiment for the second round of the MLB playoffs is complete, and it wasn’t good. The Yankees lost, so that’s good though.

In the wild card round the coins ended with a record of four correct picks and four incorrect pics. 4-4. How did they fair in the second round (hint: not good)?

Astros vs A’s: The coin picked the team that invented the sign stealing scheme and used it to win a world series. I can’t complain too much because the guy who invented it also took it to Boston and won a world series with my beloved Red Sox…. so yeah, cheatin’ all around. Crud. The coin picked the Astros and the Astros won. My record is 1-0. Feels good? Don’t get used to it.

Yankees vs Rays: The coin picked the Yankees and as a result, once this is over I am taking the quarter in question outside to the sewer drain across the street from my house and dropping it in. Stupid coin. Fortunately, the coin was wrong and the Rays won. Unfortunately, I hate the Rays too… but at least the Yankees are out. That’s sweet. My record is 1-1.

Now for the National League slaughter………

Padres vs Dodgers: Someday I would like to live in San Diego, or at least visit much more often than we do. I would not like to live in Los Angeles. The coin picked the Padres (yay!) but the Dodgers won (boo!). My record is 1-2.

Marlins vs Braves: The coin picked the Marlins, but fate knew that the Braves were originally from Boston and thought I would maybe want a Boston-ish team to root for and the Braves won. My record is 1-3.

So the first round is 4-4 and the second round is 1-3 which puts me and my coins at a dismal 5-7. It looks bad, but two correct picks in the Pennant round could bring me right back to 50/50, right? Here goes!

Heads for the higher seed, tails for the lower seed….

Astros vs Rays: (please don’t come up tails, please don’t come up tails) Heads, we’re picking the Rays!

Braves vs Dodgers: (the Dodgers are a juggernaut and pretty much a shoe in to win the world series, please come up head, please come up heads) Heads! We’re rooting for Mookie Betts again and picking the Dodgers!

So there you go, kids. The Rays and the Dodgers. That’s my coin-flip-pick for the world series match up. If both series go seven games then we’ll have the results by October 19th. See you then!

Even Odds for Real?

I just checked the status of the MLB playoffs and my little coin flip experiment. The first round had eight series and the coin picked four of them. 50%.

Three of the four series in the second round are done. The coin picked one of them. Game five of the Yankees/Rays series is tonight. If the Yankees win (it breaks my heart to say this) then the coin picked two right. 50% again.

How crazy would that be?